Filed under: MiLB, MLB, New York Yankees | Tags: Cano, Cervelli, Giambi, Jeter, Montero, Pettitte, Rays, Wang
Well, we are now a little over halfway through the statistical season, and what a wild one this has been. There is so much I could be talking about, everything from the spectacular (or is it?) season the Rays have been having to the interesting breakouts we have seen so far. But perhaps it would be easier to just talk a bit about the Yankees. (more…)
Filed under: Awards, Baseball Statistics, MLB | Tags: Brewers, Chase Utley, David Wright, Guillermo Mota, Hanley Ramirez, Jimmy Rollins, Johnny Estrada, Matt Holliday, Mets., Omar Minaya, VORP
Yesterday, I made a post about how silly some of the voters for the AL MVP award were.
Today, we learned that Jimmy Rollins won, and the complaints of yesterday quickly faded away to a new set of complaints.
For example: Jimmy Rollins? He had a great season, sure, but really. His numbers were inflated by Citizen’s Bank Park. His team just barely beat the Mets. David Wright’s play was just as deserving of an MVP award as Jimmy Rollins. You could justify it by saying that the Phillies got into the playoffs, but it’s not Wright’s fault that the Mets didn’t get into the playoffs. According to VORP, Wright was second in the NL behind Hanley Ramirez, who’s team clearly was not close to the playoffs.
Meanwhile, J-Roll was ninth in the NL in VORP. Heck, even teammate Chase Utley had a higher VORP than him.
Both J-Roll and Wright play excellent defense, though J-Roll does it at a more difficult position. However, though they had similar numbers, Wright made nearly 100 less outs in a similar number of at-bats, and his OBP was far higher than that of J-Roll.
However, this year the writers were looking for a good story. What’s surprising is that they found it in J-Roll, when there was such an obvious feel-good story in Matt Holliday. He was fourth in the NL in VORP. His numbers may have been inflated by the Coors effect, but he was clutch and was a key to the Rockies getting to the playoffs. I fully expected him to get all the votes; he was far more deserving than J-Roll.
Thankfully, Holliday got second place by a very close margin, so most of the writers agreed with me, but it’s still disappointing to see him fall second. He may never have another season like this again.
In other news, the Brewers traded Johnny Estrada to the Mets for Guillermo Mota. And boy, did Omar Minaya screw the Brewers over and get exactly what he wanted. Find a catcher? Check. Make sure it’s a short commitment? Check (Estrada is under contract for one season). Lose Guillermo Mota? Check.Omar Minaya, for any faults he might have when it comes to getting prospects into his system, is a shrewd GM. He made a great move here.
Filed under: Baseball Statistics | Tags: BABIP, Baseball Prospectus, Brandon Webb, Chien-Ming Wang, derek jeter, Fausto Carmona, Ichiro Suzuki, Ichiro!, Jack Cust, jorge posada, Pdero Martinez, Pedro Feliz
I’d just like to make a comment on BABIP. BABIP, or batting average on balls in play, is a measure that was discovered a few years ago by a writer on Baseball Prospectus. He discovered with a bit of research that BABIP varies a lot for all pitchers, great ones, or not so great ones. The difference he discovered between the great pitchers and the not-as-great pitchers was that the great ones struck out more batters, walked less batters, and gave up less home runs. Good pitchers are able to compensate for a high BABIP, or some bad luck, by striking out more batters, walking less batters, and giving up less homers. That’s what made Pedro Martinez so good. In addition to coining the term BABIP, he coined the term “peripheral stats”, which are stats like K/9, BB/9, and HR/9, which indicate how well a pitcher should be able to compensate for BABIP. This lead to the creation of peripheral ERA, or ERAp. This was a stat that indicated how well we should have expected a pitcher to perform given an average BABIP. (more…)
The Philadelphia Phillies on Wednesday acquired Houston Astros closer Brad Lidge for righthander Geoff Geary, outfielder Michael Bourn and minor league third baseman Mike Costanza.
Philadelphia also received utilityman Eric Bruntlett.
Lidge, 30, went 5-3 with a 3.36 ERA and 19 saves for Houston in 2007. He averaged 11.8 strikeouts per nine innings and posted a 2.89 ERA in his final 53 appearances. Lidge has 452 strikeouts over the last four seasons – most of any reliever.
This trade signals a few things to me. First of all, if it wasn’t already apparent, it means that the Astros are officially trying to move into a rebuilding phase. Competitive teams don’t typically trade away a closer, even if it was a closer who was terrible a few years ago. Their acquisition of two prospects also signals something, which I will discuss later.
This signals that the Phillies might be willing to move Brett Myers back to the rotation (thankfully), because they have shored up that hole, and that they are also confident in a deal with Aaron Rowand or another free agent center fielder. Michael Bourn was expected to be their fallback strategy should they have failed to sign Rowand, so it would seem that they have confidence in signing him or another center fielder.
This move would look pretty good for both teams if Costanza hadn’t been included. A veteran reliever who has had dominant and not so dominant seasons and could probably use a change of pace, and a veteran utilityman in exchange for a young outfielder who is probably ready to be a starter and an above average veteran reliever. However, Costanza really tips the deal for me. There are several reasons for this. Both the Phillies and the Astros are somewhat lacking in terms of short term or long term solutions at third base. The Phillies combined Wes Helms and Abraham Nunez for by far their weakest position in their infield. The Astros had a struggling Morgan Ensberg and Mike Lamb, who leaves for free agency. Mike Costanza, though not an elite prospect, could be expected to be a strong starting third baseman in a few years and could really fill a hole for either team. This trade also helps the Astros fill holes in a very weak farm system; the Phillies have a weak farm system, too.
These facts tip this deal towards the Astros side and really leads me to believe that perhaps Ed Wade might know what he is doing.
Filed under: Joe Girardi, New York Yankees | Tags: Joe Girardi, twentyseven, Yankees
In his Yankees introduction today, it was announced that Joe Girardi will wear the number, 27, next season. The Yankees have won the World Series 26 times. I like his way of thinking.
-TwentySeven
Filed under: Baseball Strategy, Top Lists | Tags: David Riske, Jeremy Affeldt, Mike Lamb, Milton Bradley, Ramon Castro
1. Mike Lamb – Lamb will be just 32 next season, and plays passable defense at the corners – 3B, 1B, LF, RF. Three of his past four seasons have been above average in terms of OPS, and he represents a good bargain in that there is little interest in him. He could make for an excellent backup and if needed provides a passable starting bat, and he will probably come pretty cheap.
2. Ramon Castro – Castro will be 32 next season and provides passable defense for a catcher. Though he has mostly been a backup for his career and has never really stood out in his career, there is reason to believe that he could be worth a shot as a starter. Last season he hit 11 homers in 144 AB, and provided a 127 OPS+, 27% better than an average hitter. Though it might be unreasonable to expect him to hit quite so well, he is a good bargain because there is little interest in him, if he does well he could be a good starter, and if not, well he’s a decent backup.
3. Milton Bradley - That’s right. The outfielder with the attitude problem. He’s turning 30, and he’s only had one fully healthy season. However, his 110 OPS+, and his 153 OPS+ in ’07 mean that he is a good bet to be above average, if not better. Most teams are wary of his attitude and his injury problems, but any team that takes the risk on him has a good chance at a high reward.
4. Jeremy Affeldt - Turning 29 next year, the Rockies reliever posted a 137 ERA+ in the tough environment at Coors after being fully converted into a reliever. He could make for a bargain set-up man.
5. David Riske - If the Royals don’t exercise his option for 2008, Riske, who will be just 31, makes for an excellent set-up man at a good bargain. He posted a 191 ERA+ in ’07 and for his career has a 131 ERA+. Though he has a below average strikeout rate, he still consistently performs well. I’m not sure what the Royals plan to do, but if he is made available, he could be a great bargain set-up pitcher.
Filed under: Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees | Tags: Adrian Beltre, Alex Rodriguez, Coors, Crede, Eric Chavez, Garrett Atkins, Luis Castillo, Mark Ellis, Miguel Cabrera, Mike Lowell, robinson cano, Tadahito Iguchi, Troy Glaus, Wilson Betemit, Yankees
I’m going to start off right now with a little bit of honesty: I despise A-Rod. When he was on the Yankees, I had to root for
him, because it’s hard not to root for such a great player. Things were looking up, too. There was a time when I honestly thought that I was starting to like A-Rod (right). He was talking about how he was going to stay on the Yankees, and NYC was his home. He hit his 500th homer, and had such a great season, and kept on talking about how he was definitely staying. When the Yankees clinched the playoffs, he said that it felt like he had never been on any other team!
Now the truth comes out. Pay-Rod is, always was, always will be a selfish, money-grubbing player. I hope that he goes into the Hall of Fame not with a team logo on his hat, but with a dollar sign. He disrespected the game of baseball by making a selfish announcement that he was leaving the Yankees during the potential clincher of the World Series. Maybe this is my strange old-school way of thinking, but that disrespects the game.
A-Rod also disrespected the Yankees and his teammates. Robinson Cano mentioned in an interview that A-Rod didn’t even call him to let him know that he was leaving, despite all the talk about how A-Rod was trying to mentor Cano, etc, etc.
That brings me to the Yankees. How can they possibly replace the best player in baseball? (more…)
