The Baseball Exchange


Season Awards Predictions by 27yankees

That time of year has come – the playoffs, so it makes perfect sense to try to predict who wins the various awards of baseball. Keep in mind that I am not saying who I think should win, rather I am saying who I think will win. Also, keep in mind that the awards given in the offseason are voted upon before the postseason begins.

AL MVP
Alex Rodriguez. Come on. I don’t have to explain this one, do I?

NL MVP
Matt Holliday probably clinched it by getting that huge hit on the one-game playoff versus the Padres.

AL Cy Young
Josh Beckett had the most wins. Surprise?

NL Cy Young
Jake Peavy. We’re all smart people here.

AL Rookie of the Year
Dustin Pedroia may not deserve it, but he gets the Boston spotlight and the flashy numbers.

NL Rookie of the Year
Ryan Braun. Sorry, Troy. But he edged you out. To be honest, Troy wouldn’t deserve it anyways because he was only an average hitter when you factor in the Coors Effect. But the difference in defense still doesn’t quite make up for it. Smart stats aside, it’s hard for the sportswriters to ignore 30 homers.

AL Manager of the Year
Jim Leyland? Mike Hargrove? I’m kind of out of options here. There was nobody who stood out at all. I guess Eric Wedge makes the most sense, or maybe Mike Sciosia.

NL Manager of the Year
Bob Melvin virtually willed the D-Backs into the playoffs, and though I thought that Ned Yost was the frontrunner, the Brewers missing of the playoffs means that Melvin will likely take the metal home.

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3 Comments so far
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Actually I can debate the whole A-Rod for MVP. All you need to do is compare his numbers to Maglio and David Ortiz. A-Rod has more RBI”s and runs because of the guys he has hitting before and after him. Imagine Maglio in the Yankees line up. He only had 14 less RBI’s.
Ortiz was hurt all year and he didn’t have Manny hitting behind him for months but that was when he was even better.
My debate thought goes this way. Switch A-Rod with either player and his numbers are not even close to being the same. Then do the vice versa and Ortiz and Maglio’s numbers go up.
It would be interesting. I wonder how many of A-Rods RBI’s were benefits for homeruns he hit with the 200 million dollar pay roll on base before him.? Ortiz had Coco, Lugo and Youkilis hitting before him all year and they were not very good.

Comment by FireDannyAinge

Problems with your argument:
-This was what I think the voters will vote for, and it seems fairly obvious that the consensus is that A-Rod is the most deserved player. Besides of which, A-Rod led both Ortiz and Ordonez by 10-15 OPS+ points, which is a lot, and he led the majors in VORP with 96.6. That means that he contributed 9.66 wins more than a replacement-level third baseman. The next highest AL third baseman was Mike Lowell, at 46.5 VORP (4.65 WARP). A-Rod contributed nearly five more wins than Mike Lowell – if you replace A-Rod with Mike Lowell, the Tigers make the playoffs.
Compare the RF and DH/1B leaders:
Magglio had 8.78 WARP compared to Vlad Guerrero with 6.26 WARP. Thats a difference of a little over 2 wins, which means that replacing Magglio with Vlad still leaves the Tigers in the race.
Ortiz had 8.62 WARP. Second in the AL was Carlos Pena with 6.85 WARP, a difference of less than two wins. Replace Ortiz with Pena and the Red Sox still just barely win out the division.

Comment by 27yankees

Besides, RBI shouldn’t be what you judge a player on. Yes, the voters will probably look at those, but we know better and hopefully you can use a statistic not dependent on the performance of other team members to accurately judge a player. So even if A-Rod played for the Royals and only drove in 120 RBIs, he would still statistically be the most valuable because he contributed the most to his team – that’s the definition of valuable.

Comment by red




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