The Baseball Exchange


Prince Fielder Sets A Record by 27yankees

Babe Ruth. Hank Aaron. Barry Bonds. Alex Rodriguez (soon)… and… Prince Fielder?

OK, perhaps it is a bit farfetched to says that Prince Fielder might be the next home run king. But the young man certainly had an excellent season; in fact, he hit the most home runs ever by a player under 24 years old, and became the youngest player ever to hit fifty home runs at age 23.

Though his defense suffers, a move to the American League at some point as a DH might be just what this young man needs to set a new home run record. It is difficult to predict how many home runs a player will get through his career, but I will now attempt to do it.

The Fresh Prince hit two homers in 59 at-bats in his age 21 season, and followed it up by hitting 28 homers in his rookie season. This was followed by a fifty home run sophomore season at age 23. This gives him a total thus far of 80 career homers.

Though he certainly performed better than we can expect him to perform for the next few seasons, I think it is fair to forecast him averaging 40 home runs through age 33 right through his peak and then down a bit. If we assume that he stays mostly healthy during those seasons, we can predict 400 homers over the next ten years.

This is where the crystal ball gets murkier. Prince Fielder has a body type that does not lend itself to aging; that said, because he doesn’t rely on his youth in the first place, he might not be all that strongly effected by aging.

If we give him the benefit of the doubt and assume he averages 35 homers from age 33 to age 36, he gets another 105 homers for a grand total of 585.

Based on this projection, he’s been very healthy thus far, but with an aging body I wouldn’t be surprised to see him miss a season here. Age 37 season, he’ll only get four or five, for a grand total of 590.

Age 38-Age 40 looks like another few years of 35 homers in my book, for a total of 660 homers. I’m going to assume he retires at age 42 unless the goal is in sight. Two years of 20 homers gives him 700 home runs, which would leave him falling short of the record.

However, Prince Fielder is a unique player. If he can continue hitting fifty homers, you could bump that projection up to 800, or even more. I certainly think that if the Fresh Prince can remain healthy and productive, he has an excellent shot at both the Hall of Fame and at the home run record that A-Rod, Albert Pujols, or Miguel Cabrera will set.

Disclaimer: All numbers were pulled out of a certain place where the sun doesn’t shine, and this should all be taken with the grain of salt that I CANNOT predict the future.

-TwentySeven

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